Bitcoin miner reserves have fallen by approximately 61,000 BTC this cycle, with Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms offloading over 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026. This has added sell pressure, making a dip to $60,000 in April more likely. Bitcoin reaching $60,000 by April 30 currently sits at 100% YES, up from 20% a week ago.
Market reaction
The April 19 sub-market sits at 99.8% YES, with expectations of continued downward pressure. The April 16 market is at 99.9% YES, pricing in Bitcoin dropping below $68,000 today.
Why it matters
The April 16 market shows $301,452 in actual USDC traded, a volume level that signals strong conviction in the decline. With only $32,199 needed to move the April 19 price by 5 points, even modest trades could shift the market meaningfully.
Miner behavior is a direct indicator of supply-side pressure. As reserves decline, more BTC hits the open market, pushing prices lower. This sell-off is driven by rising energy costs and capital reallocation toward AI infrastructure, straining miners as BTC struggles to hold support levels. At 99.9% YES, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin stays below $68,000 today, a near certainty unless unexpected bullish news arrives.
What to watch
Geopolitical developments or shifts in miner behavior could change the trajectory. Specific catalysts that would disrupt the bearish trend include a US-Iran ceasefire or large institutional Bitcoin purchases.
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Bitcoin Price On April 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 20 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
