Bitcoin meltdown to $10,000 remains likely unless prices reclaim $75,000, analyst says

Bloomberg's Mike McGlone has reiterated his forecast that Bitcoin could plunge to $10,000, this time anchoring his outlook to a clear line in the sand: $75,000.

What to know:

• Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone reiterates a bearish call that bitcoin could fall back to about $10,000, a level he views as its long-term equilibrium price.
• His thesis hinges on bitcoin failing to decisively reclaim and hold $75,000, a key technical and psychological level, with a sustained break above it invalidating his bearish outlook.

A familiar voice is back with a familiar, and controversial, call on bitcoin BTC$69,120.91.

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, is reiterating that bitcoin could crash to $10,000.

But this time, he's framed it with a very clear line in the sand: $75,000.

If bitcoin decisively reclaims and holds that level, the bearish thesis breaks. If it can't, McGlone's view is that the path of least resistance is sharply lower, with prices falling all the way to $10,000, the level last seen in early 2020.

The $10,000 magnet

McGlone's uber bearish forecast of a crash to $10,000 isn't new. It's been circling for weeks, and it is based more on market structure than short-term catalysts.

The cryptocurrency spent a long stretch hovering around $10,000 before the massive wave of fiat liquidity hit the markets following the coronavirus-induced 2020 crash. That era of zero rates, stimulus checks and aggressive liquidity easing by central banks torched unprecedented risk-taking across all corners of the financial markets. It played a major role in lifting BTC permanently above $10,000.

"Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting. Roughly $10,000 is also the first-born crypto's most traded price since 2017, when futures were launched," McGlone noted on LinkedIn.

With that era of abundant liquidity now behind us, McGlone suggests that bitcoin may revert to what he considers its equilibrium price — around $10,000.

According to him, $10,000 has been the most heavily traded price zone since 2017, when the CME futures began trading. In other words, $10,000 isn't just a round number — it's where a huge amount of historical volume sits.

McGlone also points to the crypto market's explosive growth as a potential drag on bitcoin. In 2017, bitcoin largely defined the space, but today, millions of tokens compete for attention and drain capital away from the industry leader. In his view, that surge in supply has become a structural headwind rather than a tailwind.

"Unlimited crypto supply and use-case rivals are Bitcoin headwinds," McGlone said on LinkedIn, adding that stablecoins represent "the most enduring trend" in crypto. He expects ether to become bigger than ether and eventually bitcoin.

"I expect the 'flippening' to continue, with Tether's AUM topping Ethereum in 2026 and eventually Bitcoin," he said.

The $75K invalidation level

McGlone's bearish forecast hinges on prices staying below $75,000. This level has been a major turning point for market trends over the past 12 months. The March-April 2025 slide ran out of steam at around $75,000, while the early 2024 rally stalled there. Furthermore, $75,000 corresponds to key Fibonacci retracement levels.

Think of it as a market verdict threshold. A sustained move above it would suggest that bitcoin has re-established strong structural demand, ending the downtrend that began at October highs above $126,000. It would imply that institutional flows, macro conditions, or both are strong enough to override his reversion thesis.

Fail to get there — or get rejected again — and the argument flips: bitcoin may still be trapped in a longer-term decline to $10,000.

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