Bitcoin is closing in on $75,000 and analysts say a breakout could trigger a massive new rally

Several crypto market experts including Mati Greenspan, former senior eToro market analyst, explain what might happen if bitcoin manages to hold $75,000 and if it does not.

What to know:

• Analysts say a sustained break above $75,000 could mark a structural breakout for bitcoin, shifting it from a consolidation phase into a new uptrend.
• Some market watchers see $75,000 as mainly a psychological barrier, arguing that levels closer to $79,000 and key moving averages matter more for confirming a durable rally.
• Despite risks of a bull trap and macro headwinds, analysts note strong support around $65,000, renewed U.S. spot bitcoin ETF inflows and more institutional-driven dynamics as factors limiting downside and supporting further gains.

Bitcoin’s approach toward $75,000 is drawing increased attention from analysts, who told CoinDesk the level could mark a key shift in the market’s current rangebound structure.

“A clean break above $75,000 wouldn’t just be another move higher; it would represent a structural breakout from consolidation and likely shift the market into a new upward trend,” said Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics and a former senior market analyst at eToro.

The cryptocurrency has not traded above $75,000 since Feb. 2, as BTC was on a descending trend from a brief $95,000 visit that saw it drop to roughly $62,000 on Feb. 5, according to CoinDesk data.

Greenspan said the significance of going beyond the $75,000 level lies less in a brief move about it and more in whether bitcoin can sustain those gains.

“The key question isn’t whether we briefly trade above $75,000, but whether we can hold it,” Greenspan said, noting that acceptance above that threshold would signal strength and draw in new capital.

A downside would be limited anyway

However, he said, a failure to hold would risk turning the move into a bull trap, though the broader market structure remains strong. He also believes that even in a negative scenario, the downside would likely be limited because of existing established support. “If it doesn’t hold, then we still have strong support at $65,000.”

Kevin Murcko, a crypto analyst and founder and CEO at crypto exchange Coinmetro, said round-number levels like $75,000 can act as focal points for market participants and could create supply as investors who recently entered positions look to take profit.

“Traders, especially those that aren’t that experienced, generally trade around round numbers,” Murcko said, adding that levels such as $25,000, $50,000 and $75,000 tend to draw in buying and selling interest.

Whether bitcoin can move decisively beyond that level will depend on the broader backdrop at the time, including the news flow driving markets, Murcko said.

“In most cases, if we see news pushing price to around $75,000, that same momentum can push it past,” Murcko said, emphasizing that price levels alone are less important than the balance between supply and demand and the strength of buying pressure.

BTC could rise to $85,000

Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit Learn, said bitcoin is now re-entering a key battleground between bulls and bears, with the $75,000 region acting as a strong resistance in recent weeks.

He believes a meaningful break above that level would draw sidelined buyers back into the market and potentially clear the path upward to the mid-$80,000 level. However, Tan said such gains would likely depend on supportive macro backdrop, including easing geopolitical tensions and continued ETF inflows.

Other analysts, however, believe $75,000 may be more of a psychological milestone than a genuine structural pivot.

Dessislava Ianeva, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, said that while a move above $75,000 could draw in momentum buyers, stronger confirmation would come at higher levels.

She said “$75,000 is psychologically significant, but $79,000 is the level that matters structurally,” pointing to the 100-day moving average and a prior rejection zone. Ianeva also said a sustained move above roughly $74,000 on a daily closing basis would provide an early signal that the breakout has “structural legs.”

The market intelligence research analyst noted that current market positioning appears relatively stable, reducing the likelihood of a sharp reversal. Funding rates remain muted, and bitcoin has absorbed recent selling pressure, including exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, without breaking lower, a behaviour that is not typical of a market on the verge of a major pullback.

U.S. Spot bitcoin ETFs did not see inflows until March, when these investment instruments recorded $1.32 billion in net inflows, ending a four month outflow streak.

Altering how bitcoin behaves

Broader structural changes in the market may also be altering how bitcoin behaves during the current cycle, according to Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and AdLunam co-founder.

“Bitcoin isn’t trading like a purely retail-driven cycle,” Fernandes said, citing persistent ETF inflows, reduced free float and stronger holder cohorts.

Fernandes said that while BTC can still see sharp downside moves during liquidity shocks, it tends to recover based on expectations around central bank policy and liquidity conditions, often ahead of traditional risk assets.

“Rising oil prices and geopolitical stress keep inflation expectations elevated and delay policy easing,” he said. “That tightens financial conditions in the short term, but once real yields roll over or liquidity stabilizes, crypto tends to reprice quickly and generally ahead of traditional risk assets.”

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