Bitcoin holds steady as inflation data looms, bittensor drama unfolds

Traders face a pivotal Friday as narrowing volatility on bitcoin's chart hints at a massive price move while bittensor faces a high-profile developer exit.

What to know:

• Bitcoin and ether prices remain trapped in a narrow range with technical indicators suggesting a potential 40% price swing is imminent.
• The Bittensor ecosystem is reeling after a major developer departed while claiming the network's decentralization is a lie.
• Privacy-focused DASH is outperforming the broader market with a 34% gain as investors rotate into the privacy sector.

The crypto market held steady on Friday, with bitcoin BTC$71,919.01 trading little changed at $71,700 and ether (ETH) at $2,180, extending the low-volatility price action that has characterized the past few months.

Daily Bollinger bands, a technical analysis tool that measures market volatility, are at their narrowest since early 2024. In the past, such a tight range — bitcoin has held between $63,000 and $75,000 since early February — has ended with a 40% move in price, according crypto analyst Eric Crown.

A breakout above $75,000 in bitcoin's case would trigger upside momentum by trapping traders who are short and need to buy at market prices to cover their positions, while a short-term move below $70,000 will liquidate around $200 million worth of long positions that are betting on the breakout, according to CoinGlass' liquidation heatmap.

One key catalyst on Friday will be the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data. March inflation is estimated at 3.3% year-on-year, driven by surging energy prices. High inflation figures tend to spur upside price action in the U.S. dollar, which could weigh on risk assets like bitcoin.

Derivatives positioning

• Open interest (OI) in bitcoin futures increased by 1%, with average perpetual funding rates on major exchanges at their highest since Feb. 4. This shows a strengthening investor appetite for bullish exposure.
• Other major cryptocurrencies were mixed. OI increased slightly in XRP (XRP) while holding flat in ether (ETH) and solana (SOL). HYPE and AVAX are other standouts, displaying a bullish combination of OI growth and positive funding rates.
• The privacy-focused ZEC, meanwhile, shows OI growth and negative rates, a sign that traders are continuing to short futures and hedge downside risks even as the spot price rallies. ZEC’s price rose to nearly $400, the highest since Jan. 28.
• There seems to be no end to the downtrend in BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV. The measure has slipped to 45%, indicating market calm. It has dropped in a near-straight line from 58% on March 31. Ether’s volatility index shows a similar pattern.
• The decline in volatility is largely led by ETF-related flows. “The ETF complex has created a feedback loop: institutions sell calls for yield, which suppresses upside vol, which makes selling more calls even more attractive. The impact is still subtle, but the direction of travel is clear. Bitcoin’s options market is maturing into a structurally skewed market, just like equities,” STS Digital’s CEO Maxime Seiler told CoinDesk.
• The implied volatility term structure is flat for the next six months and then rises from September, suggesting the market is prepping for a quiet few months in between.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to display put skews, although it's much weaker than a week ago as traders chase upside bets, particularly the BTC call option at the $80,000 strike.

Token talk

• CoinDesk's DeFi Select Index (DFX) is the best-performing benchmark on Friday, rising by 0.38% while the bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 5 (CD5) is down by a quarter of a percent.
• The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) is the worst performer, losing 1.4% after it was dragged down by bittensor (TAO), which lost more than 12% since midnight UTC after Covenant AI, one of the network's largest subnet developers, said it was leaving Bittensor.
• "The entire premise of Bittensor, the promise that drew builders, miners, validators, and investors into this ecosystem, is that no single entity controls it," Covenant AI founder Sam Dare wrote on X. "That promise is a lie."
• One token that shrugged off broader crypto market apathy was DASH, which surged more than 19% since midnight UTC, contributing to a 24-hour gain of 34% as traders rotated back into the privacy sector.

More For You

Most crypto privacy models weaken as blockchain data grows. Encryption-based models like Zcash strengthen. CoinDesk Research maps the five privacy approaches and examines the widening gap.

Why it matters:

As blockchain adoption scales, the metadata available to machine learning models scales with it. Obfuscation-based privacy approaches are structurally degrading as a result. This report provides a comprehensive comparison of all five major crypto privacy architectures and a framework for evaluating which models remain durable as AI capabilities improve.

More For You

The stock has plunged roughly 99% from its May 2025 peak as pressure builds on the bitcoin treasury firm.

What to know:

• The company is proposing a reverse stock split in a range of 1 for 20 to 1 for 50 in order to increase its share price and gain compliance with Nasdaq’s $1 minimum bid requirement.
• Nakamoto has registered more than 400 million shares for resale and outlined up to roughly...

HSBC and Standard Chartered-led group land Hong Kong’s first stablecoin licenses

1 hour ago

XRP adjacent Flare proposes protocol-level MEV capture and 40% inflation cut

1 hour ago

David Bailey’s bitcoin holder Nakamoto is trying to stay on Nasdaq with a reverse stock split

2 hours ago

Japan moves to classify cryptocurrencies as financial products

2 hours ago

XRP may be less exposed to quantum computer threats than bitcoin, experts say

4 hours ago

XRP edges higher to $1.35 on breakout, but bullish momentum still lacks

5 hours ago

Trump's World Liberty Financial uses 5 billion WLFI to borrow $75 million from a platform its advisor co-founded

20 hours ago

ETH, SOL, DOGE slide as Bitcoin fails to break $73,000 for the third time since the ceasefire

6 hours ago

Quantum-safe bitcoin now possible without a soft fork, but costs $200 a pop, new research shows

7 hours ago

Kalshi now controls 89% of the U.S. prediction market as regulated trading takes over

16 hours ago

Mythos AI threat prompts Bessent, Powell to convene bank CEOs for urgent talks

8 hours ago

Potential buyers are circling Winklevoss-backed crypto exchange Gemini

17 hours ago

In this article

BTCBTC$71,919.01◢0.90%