Bitcoin surged to $78,000 on April 22, 2026, following news of a ceasefire extension between the United States and Iran. The odds of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by the end of April are now at 65.5% YES, up from 44% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The $80,000 April target saw a 5-point spike to 50% at 8:48 AM as traders responded to reduced geopolitical tensions. The $150,000 target sits at 0.1% YES, unchanged from previous levels.
Why it matters
The ceasefire extension eases concerns over Middle East volatility and energy supply disruptions, which tends to support risk assets like Bitcoin. The $80,000 target market is trading at $105,235 in daily USDC volume, with $24,792 required to move the price by 5 percentage points, a sign of strong liquidity. That said, the original source is social media, so traders should weigh this against more concrete developments before sizing positions.
What to watch
Eight days remain until the end of April. A YES share at the current price offers a potential payout of 1.52x if Bitcoin crosses $80,000. Watch for any Bitcoin purchases or institutional announcements from BlackRock and MicroStrategy. Statements from President Trump or developments around the Strait of Hormuz could also shift the market.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | 66.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| $150,000 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
