Bitcoin hit $78,000 after Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz is “open and ready for business.” The prediction market for Bitcoin between $78,000 and $80,000 by April 15 now sits at 100¢ YES, up from 20% a week ago.
The move was immediate. The April 15 market jumped to 100% YES as easing tensions around the strait, a chokepoint for global oil supplies, reduced the perceived risk of economic disruption feeding into crypto volatility.
The market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April has also softened. With de-escalation underway, odds of that drop have fallen. Traders who had positioned for higher volatility are now facing a different setup.
Trading volume on the April 15 market reached a face value of $30,241, showing strong conviction in the new price range. Order book depth indicates substantial size is needed to move the price from here.
At 100% YES for Bitcoin in the $78,000 to $80,000 range, this market is no longer a trade but a settled question. Buying YES at 100¢ is a bet that nothing disrupts the current price level before April 15, not a speculative position.
Watch for new geopolitical friction or policy moves from the Federal Reserve or large institutional players like BlackRock. Either could reopen volatility and create fresh trading opportunities in adjacent Bitcoin price markets.
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Bitcoin Above On April 13| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
