Bitcoin reached $77,000 as the Fed’s decision approaches and Trump prepares for a lengthy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by the end of April sits at 19.5% YES, down from 42% a week ago.
Market reaction
The $80,000 contract dropped 37 points in a single move yesterday. Current odds show clear skepticism about Bitcoin reaching that level with only a couple of days left in April. Actual USDC traded on this market was $125,323, with $8,440 needed to move the price by five points. That depth indicates moderate liquidity — a relatively small order could shift the contract meaningfully. The $150,000-in-April contract trades at 0.1%.
Why it matters
Traders are pricing the Hormuz crisis and Trump’s aggressive posture as potential bullish inputs for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. At 19.5% YES, a winning bet on Bitcoin hitting $80,000 pays $1 on a 19.5¢ investment, a 6.45x return. The 37-point collapse in one week, from 42% to 15.5%, reflects traders repricing the likelihood that geopolitical and macro catalysts will push Bitcoin another $3,000 before month’s end.
What to watch
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision and any further statements from Trump on the Strait of Hormuz are the two immediate variables. Both could move Bitcoin’s price and the contract odds sharply in either direction with so little time remaining.
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What Price Will Bitcoin Hit In April 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | 19.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| $150,000 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4% | — | — | Trade → |
