Bitcoin tagged $75,000, and the Polymarket prediction for Bitcoin reaching $78,000-$80,000 by April 15 now shows 100% YES, up from 20% a week ago.
The move to $75,000 coincided with $89M in short liquidations. The April 15 market sits at 100% YES with one day left until resolution. The April 30 markets show the same level of certainty, suggesting traders expect the price to hold through the month.
Odds on Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April have dropped sharply. With the price above $75,000 and momentum pointing up, fewer traders are pricing in a bearish reversal.
The April 15 market has a face value of $30,241. Worth noting: actual USDC data is absent, which points to potential volatility. A thin order book means a single large trade could swing odds significantly. The biggest price move in the last 24 hours was a 15-point spike, likely triggered by large buy orders reacting to geopolitical news.
Bitcoin’s move to $75,000 tracks optimism around a ceasefire holding in the Strait of Hormuz. At 22¢, a YES share in the April 15 market pays $1 if Bitcoin lands between $78,000 and $80,000, a 4.5x return. That pricing implies traders expect continued diplomatic progress and ETF inflows to support the price.
Watch for official statements confirming a US-Iran ceasefire or announcements from institutional players like BlackRock or Fidelity. Either could move these markets further.
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Bitcoin Above On April 13| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
