Bitcoin touched a 12-week high of $79,399, reversing for the third time at the $79,000 level in eight sessions. The market for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by June 30, 2026, sits at 2.9% YES, down slightly from 3% yesterday.
The September 30 market prices odds at 10.5% YES, down from 11% a day ago. The 8-point gap between the June 30 and September 30 contracts suggests traders see a higher probability of a breakout in the second half of the year rather than the next two months. The December 31 market holds at 17.5% YES.
Bitcoin’s third rejection at $79,000 comes ahead of Fed and ECB rate decisions and ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. The June 30 sub-market had $8,027 in 24-hour face value volume, but actual USDC traded was only $917. It takes just $959 to move the June 30 market 5 percentage points, meaning a single large order could significantly shift the odds.
The U.S.-Iran conflict and high oil prices are putting pressure on inflation expectations and central bank policy, which feeds into Bitcoin pricing. The Fed and ECB decisions this week could shift rate expectations, though without Bitcoin approaching its all-time high, the direct effect on these contracts is limited. At 29¢, a YES share for Bitcoin reaching a new high by June 30 pays $1, a 3.45x return if resolved. That bet requires a significant move within the next 67 days.
Watch for statements from Jerome Powell and Michael Saylor, along with any corporate Bitcoin adoption announcements. The Fed and ECB rate decisions this week will set the near-term direction for rate expectations and, by extension, Bitcoin’s price path.
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Bitcoin All Time High| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4.9% | — | — | Trade → |
