Bitcoin hashrate posts first-quarter drop for first time in 6 years as miners pivot to AI

The first-quarter decline breaks a long-standing growth trend, but could ultimately support decentralization as public U.S. miners face losing dominance.

What to know:

• Bitcoin’s hashrate is down around 4% this year, the first first-quarter decline since 2020, following five consecutive years of double-digit growth.
• As mining economics deteriorate, firms are allocating capital to AI infrastructure, a shift that may reduce concentration among large U.S. miners and improve network decentralization.

For the first time in six years, the bitcoin BTC$67,347.02 hashrate, the total computational power securing the network, fell during the first quarter. It is currently down around 4% year to date, hovering around 1 zettahash per second (ZH/s).

Over the past five years, the rate has surged from roughly 100 exahashes per second (EH/s), a 10-fold increase, according to Glassnode data. Each year, the metric rose during the first quarter and ended with strong full-year growth in excess of 10%. In 2022, the figure almost doubled.

The AI Pivot

The shift in 2026 reflects changing economics across the bitcoin mining sector. With production costs near $90,000 per bitcoin and the spot price closer to $67,000, margins are negative. In response, many publicly listed miners are switching to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing infrastructure, where returns are higher and more predictable.

This transition is being funded through debt issuance and bitcoin sales, reducing reinvestment into bitcoin mining. As a result, hashrate growth is becoming more sensitive to the cryptocurrency's price, with weaker prices likely to trigger further declines as smaller operators exit.

While a falling hashrate may raise concerns about network security, decentralization may matter more than absolute size. Publicly listed U.S. miners have accounted for over 40% of the global hash rate, and a reduction in their influence could lead to a more geographically distributed network. In that sense, the current shift may ultimately support decentralization.

Despite the slowdown, CoinShares still forecasts hashrate growth to around 1.8 ZH/s by the end of 2026, conditional on bitcoin recovering toward $100,000.

Read More: End of bitcoin 'HODL': public miners going all-in on AI, signaling more BTC selling

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