Bitcoin finds stability at 2023 investor cost basis, echoing past cycle

Onchain cost basis data suggests $60,000 is a critical support, with deeper historical support near $54,000.

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What to know:

• Bitcoin recently held the 2023 realized price around $63,700 as support, echoing similar behavior seen during multiple corrections in 2023.
• The broader realized price sits near $54,300, a level historically breached in bear markets, making it the next major downside support if $60,000 fails.

Bitcoin recently found support at a key onchain metric — the average realized price for a specific year — in this case the 2023 cost basis.

The 2023 average realized price currently sits around $63,700. During the local bottom in early February, when bitcoin dropped roughly 50% from its October all-time high, to roughly $60,000, price effectively tested and held this level as support.

This behavior mirrors the previous cycle. In early 2023, as the bull run began, bitcoin experienced several small corrections and repeatedly used the 2023 realized price as support. This can be observed in March, July, and September 2023, when price consolidated in the $20,000 to $26,000 range.

Looking at newer cohorts, the 2026 average realized price started the year near $90,000 and has since declined to around $77,000. With bitcoin currently trading just above $70,000, the average 2026 buyer is underwater. Notably, this cohort’s cost basis has also fallen below both the 2024 cohort at $81,500 and the 2025 cohort at $96,400.

Zooming out further, the aggregate realized price, which represents the average cost basis of all coins in circulation, is currently around $54,360. Historically, bitcoin has traded below this level in every major bear market, including 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022.

So far in this cycle, bitcoin’s lowest price has been around $60,000. If that level fails, it becomes the next key support to watch, with the realized price at $54,000 acting as a deeper historical floor.

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