Bitcoin ETFs bought over $223 million in Bitcoin today, and traders are now reassessing the likelihood of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000. The odds of Bitcoin reaching that level in April sit at ?% YES.
Market reaction
Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open has calmed markets, triggering a risk-on shift. Bitcoin holds support above $75,000, reducing fears of a near-term dip. The term structure shows multiple sub-markets for April 30, but none have seen significant moves yet, likely because traders are comfortable with current levels given the institutional buying.
The ETF inflows, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, reverse a four-month outflow streak from earlier this year. The Bitcoin All Time High by June 30 market shows 4% YES, up from 3% yesterday. The September 30 contract has dipped to 9.5% YES, with some traders cautious about sustained upside.
Why it matters
Liquidity in these markets is moderate: $917 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. The June 30 market’s depth requires $959 to move 5 percentage points, which means small orders won’t easily push prices around. But the September 30 market saw a 2-point spike at 3:34 PM, showing that larger trades can still move the needle.
What to watch
At current odds, a YES share for a new all-time high by June 30 pays $1 for a 4¢ investment, a 25x return. That bet requires continued institutional buying and stable geopolitical conditions. Watch for shifts in ETF inflow patterns from BlackRock and Fidelity, and any geopolitical developments that affect oil prices.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 4% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
