Bitcoin’s April dip-to-$60,000 contract sits at 0% YES on Polymarket, with traders pricing in no meaningful chance of that threshold being hit as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate.
Market reaction
The April 30 Bitcoin contract remains flat at 0% YES, with no buyers willing to take the other side. Crude oil markets show similarly dead odds, with the all-time-high-by-month-end contract at just 1% YES. Neither contract has attracted meaningful volume.
Why it matters
Bitcoin’s daily volume on this contract reads zero. Liquidity is thin enough that even small trades could cause large percentage swings in the odds. On the crude oil side, just $695 in orders would move the market by five points, meaning any concentrated bet could shift the price sharply.
What to watch
A YES share on the Bitcoin contract costs 0¢ and pays nothing unless conditions change dramatically. The geopolitical standoff between the U.S. and Iran is the main variable. Specific triggers to monitor: any Trump administration foreign policy announcements regarding Iran, or shifts in Iran’s negotiating posture. Either could reprice both contracts quickly given how little liquidity is sitting in the books.
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Bitcoin Above On April 25| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 25 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |