Bitcoin caught between critical onchain support and an options showdown

Heavy supply concentration and large options positioning continue to suppress volatility and keep bitcoin range-bound.

What to know:

• Bitcoin rebounded from its 128-day moving average near $74,500
• It remains below key onchain resistance levels around $77,000, including the true market mean and short-term holder cost basis.
• Ahead of the $6.6 billion Deribit options expiry on May 29, large open interest at the $75,000 put and $80,000 call is incentivizing market makers to keep price action pinned within this range.
• More than 15% of bitcoin supply sits between $74,000 and $83,000.

The price of bitcoin BTC$76,856.32 has been closely tracking the 2026 realized price, currently around $76,200, according to Checkonchain, since the beginning of April.

The realized price is the average onchain acquisition cost of all bitcoin that last moved within a specific year. In other words, it reflects the aggregate cost basis of market participants from 2026, and some market participants see it as a more meaningful gauge than traditional psychological support or resistance price levels.

In February, when bitcoin plunged to nearly $60,000, the market found support close to the 2023 realized price, reinforcing the growing importance of these cohort cost-basis levels in shaping market structure.

This weekend, the largest cryptocurrency briefly dropped to $74,500 before rebounding from its 128-day moving average, another closely watched technical level.

At its current price, bitcoin is trading below two major onchain metrics clustered around $77,000: the true market mean and the short-term holder cost basis. Both levels are widely monitored as indicators of broader market sentiment and short-term positioning.

Attention is also turning toward the May 29 options expiry on Deribit, where roughly $6.6 billion in open interest is set to expire.

The largest concentration of call options, about $600 million, sits at the $80,000 strike price. The largest put positioning is concentrated at $75,000, with around $377 million in open interest. Market makers and traders are incentivized to keep price action pinned between these levels as expiry approaches, contributing to the current period of compressed volatility.

Glassnode data shows that more than 15% of bitcoin’s circulating supply has been acquired between $74,000 and $83,000, highlighting just how compressed the current trading range has become and how much supply is concentrated around these levels.

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