Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have formed a new political alliance called “Together – Led by Bennett” aimed at unseating Benjamin Netanyahu. The market for Netanyahu leaving office by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES, unchanged from yesterday.
The April 30 market is at 0.1% YES, while the June 30 market holds at 5.5% YES. Traders appear to price any real impact later in the year rather than in the near term.
The term structure shows a 5-point jump between the April and June markets, which points to traders expecting some catalyst within that window. With 67 days to the June 30 resolution, the gap likely reflects bets on coalition instability as the new alliance tries to pull voters away from Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc.
Combined USDC volume across these markets is $1,762, which is modest. Order book depth for the June market requires $9,495 to move the odds 5 points, suggesting thin but stable positioning.
At 5.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Netanyahu is out by June 30, a 18.2x return. The price reflects deep skepticism that the Bennett-Lapid alliance translates into an actual change in government this quickly. Watch for defections within Netanyahu’s coalition, upcoming Knesset sessions, and any Supreme Court rulings that could affect his legal standing.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
