Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid are forming a new political alliance to contest Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership. The market predicting Netanyahu’s removal by June 30 is at 5.5% YES, down slightly from 6% yesterday.
The Bennett-Lapid alliance could consolidate opposition forces and increase pressure on Netanyahu. The June 30 market trades at 5.5% YES with 67 days until resolution. The April 30 market sits at 0.1% YES, meaning traders see virtually no chance of a near-term change.
These markets are thin. The June 30 contract averages $1,423 in daily USDC volume, and order book depth suggests $9,495 could move the odds by five points. The largest single move in the last 24 hours was a one-point drop, which confirms how sensitive these contracts are to large orders.
Bennett and Lapid governed together in 2021–2022, so the pairing has a track record. But Israeli politics remain fragmented. To realistically threaten Netanyahu’s hold on power, the opposition would need broad support, including backing from Arab parties, something that has historically been difficult to assemble and sustain.
Watch for no-confidence votes or coalition defections in the Knesset. Developments in Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial could also shift the political math, as a conviction or plea deal would change the calculus for coalition partners currently backing him.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
