Battered bitcoin could find solace in war-led 'debasement' trade

Your day-ahead look for March 2, 2026

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The conflict between U.S., Israel and Iran remains the day's biggest story as the attacks intensify and spread.

Markets reacted as they typically do: by de-risking and sending oil prices higher. Bitcoin BTC$65,976.14 dropped to $66,300, down 0.5% over 24 hours, having hit a high of $68,000 over the weekend. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell over 2%, signaling broader losses in the crypto market and futures tied to the S&P 500 index lost 1%.

Looking past the headlines and panic, the war could only strengthen the "debasement trade," a strategy in which investors rotate into scarce-supply assets like gold and bitcoin in anticipation of a decline in the value of fiat (paper) currencies.

Governments in the U.S. and elsewhere already owe more than they generate in economic growth. Their finances will only worsen the longer the war drags on. In such situations, governments don't collect enough in taxes. Instead, they force central banks to "print money" through bond purchases or quantitive easing (QE) to monetize debt. This floods fiat supply and dilutes purchasing power. Hello debasement.

Traders front-run that process by loading up on store-of-value assets like gold and BTC. The yellow metal has been on a tear for over a year mainly on debasement flows. BTC did not participate back then. But now, having nearly halved to under $67,000 since October, it looks oversold. The possibility of the debasement trade catalyzing a bounce in the largest cryptocurrency cannot be ruled out.

Besides, historically the Fed turns dovish with liquidity easing during geopolitical stress, supporting asset prices, as Maelstrom Fund's CIO Arthur Hayes noted in his blog post.

Let's see how things unfold. In the meantime traders need to watch headline risks and oil upswings. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • March 2: SuperRare to release Delirium, a new collection by artist Xer0x
  • March 2: Mantra’s OM to change to MANTRA with a 1:4 coin split as the MANTRA Chain upgrades from v6 to v7.
• Macro
  • March 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for February est. 52.3 (Prev. 52.6)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 2: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, -$0.32
  • March 2: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.18

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • PoolTogether DAO is voting to manually resubmit and execute the remaining actions for the PTBR-35 Governance Shutdown after a previous execution error. Voting ends March 2.
  • Angle DAO is voting to orderly wind down the EURA and USDA stablecoins, providing users a one-year 1:1 redemption period followed by a final settlement airdrop. Voting ends March 2.
  • GMX DAO is voting to transition to a defined leadership model by hiring a CEO with performance-tied compensation and forming an interim leadership committee to guide the restructuring. Voting ends March 2.
• Unlocks
  • No major unlocks.
• Token Launches
  • March 2: Dovu (DOVU) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 2 of 2: Crypto Expo Europe (Bucharest, Romania)

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.98% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $66,194.78 (24hrs: -0.35%)
• ETH is up 1.48% at $1,950.67 (24hrs: -1.63%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.78% at 1,916.46 (24hrs: -1.11%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bp at 2.85%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0011% (-1.2147% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.64% at 98.23
• Gold futures are up 3.03% at $5,406.80
• Silver futures are up 2.64% at $95.75
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.35% at 58,057.24
• Hang Seng closed down 2.14% at 26,059.85
• FTSE is down 0.78% at 10,825.36
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.89% at 6,022.64
• DJIA closed on Friday down 1.05% at 48,977.92
• S&P 500 closed down 0.43% at 6,878.88
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.92% at 22,668.21
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.47% at 34,339.99
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bps at 3.966%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.04% at 6,817.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.42% at 24,650.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 1.11% at 48,458.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.63% (0.22%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02944 (-0.18%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,068 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $29.01
• Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $169,782
• CME Futures Open Interest: 109,280 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 12.2 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.42%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows ether's daily price swings with Bollinger bands, which are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of the price.
• The gap between the bands has shrunk to $226, the narrowest since June 2025.
• Volatility typically booms when bands narrow, which means the token could soon see big price moves in either direction.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $175.85 (-2.88%), -2.42% at $171.60 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $83.44 (-4.32%), -3.46% at $80.55
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.59 (-6.15%), -2.19% at $20.14
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.39 (-4.09%), -3.73% at $30.22
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.94 (+5.80%), -1.23% at $8.83
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.29 (-4.68%), -2.70% at $15.85
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.97 (-5.62%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (-4.69%), -2.01% at $9.75
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.88 (-5.43%), -3.61% at $38.44
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.20 (-2.39%), -2.25% at $9.97

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.50 (-2.92%), -0.39% at $129.00
• Strive (ASST): closed at $7.94 (-3.05%), -2.39% at $7.75
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.82 (-5.41%), +0.44% at $6.85
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.66 (-12.88%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (-0.88%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$27.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.78 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$43 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.63 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.7 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Trump says Iran war may last ‘four weeks or less’ as strikes escalate (Euronews): Trump says the Iran war could last four weeks or less as U.S. and Israeli forces continue their strikes in Iran, which is responding with hits on Gulf states, Israel and U.S. targets.
• New Iranian strikes reported across region, including in Saudi Arabia, as US planes crash in Kuwait (BBC): New Iranian strikes were reported across the Middle East, with explosions in Bahrain, Dubai and Saudi Arabia.
• U.S. equity futures fall in pre-market trading as oil, gold retreat from highs (CoinDesk): U.S. equities fell in pre-market trading. The Invesco QQQ ETF declined 1.5%. A Saudi Arabia oil refinery was hit by Iran, pushing WTI crude oil as high as $75 per barrel. Gold rallied more than 2% to $5,400 per ounce.
• Hedge funds, insurers rush to gauge exposure as Iran spirals (Bloomberg): Hedge funds, banks and insurers rushed to size up their exposure to the Middle East after weekend attacks on Iran fueled chaos across the region.

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