A Balancer attacker has converted 21k ETH (about $48.7M) to 617 BTC over three days, leaving only 1k ETH in the hacker’s address. The probability of another $100 million crypto hack by December 31 is at 100% YES on Polymarket.
This conversion is part of the attacker’s ongoing liquidation of stolen funds. The crypto hack market sits at 100% YES with 251 days left until resolution. The certainty reflects how frequently hacks exceeding $100M have occurred, making another one before year-end a near-foregone conclusion.
The liquidation of this much ETH into BTC has added selling pressure on Ethereum. The probability of Ethereum being above $2,600 on April 26 is at 0.2% YES across multiple sub-markets. That market has minimal daily trading activity at $3 actual USDC, meaning traders are not expecting a price rebound within the next two days.
The hack prediction market has zero volume, so the 100% YES price reflects the near-certainty of resolution rather than active trading. Buying YES at 100¢ offers no return since the market is already priced to certainty.
Watch on-chain investigators like ZachXBT and firms like Chainalysis for further details on the Balancer attacker’s movements. Ethereum’s short-term price will depend partly on whether the remaining 1k ETH gets liquidated and on any additional large ETH outflows tied to this or similar exploits.
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Another Crypto Hack Over 100m December 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 26 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4% | — | — | Trade → |
