Bab el-Mandeb Strait stays open despite earlier threats, with the chance of closure by April 30 dropping to 1.2%, down from 6% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 30 market is at 1.2% YES, a sharp drop from 6% just a day ago. The May 31 contract is at 16.0% YES, down from 20% yesterday. The 15-point gap between these two dates suggests traders expect any potential closure to come after April, not before.
Trading volume at $11,833 USDC over the past 24 hours indicates moderate interest. Only $451 is needed to move the April 30 odds by five points, so this market is thin and vulnerable to larger trades. A notable move occurred at 5:39 PM with a 2-point spike as odds briefly increased from 6% to 7%.
Why it matters
The strait staying open and the absence of escalation point to stability in the near term. The source for the current sentiment is a Tier 3 social media post, not an official announcement, so the signal is weak. But real-world actions suggest a pullback from brinkmanship. At 1.2¢, buying YES on closure by April 30 requires believing in a sudden, dramatic escalation within six days. The likelier path runs through diplomatic channels and de-escalation.
What to watch
Official statements from Houthi leadership or Iran, and any attacks or disruptions reported by shipping companies like Maersk. Either could push odds higher if tensions return.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Bab El Mandeb Strait Effectively Closed| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 16% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
