Avalanche transactions hit a 2026 high of 3.5 mln: Can AVAX reach $10 again?

Avalanche has experienced a massive surge in on-chain activity and network usage. According to Nansen, Avalanche's daily transactions have surged to 3.5 million, the highest level in the past year. Such a massive jump in transactions indicated growing network usage. Over this period, the network's active addresses went from 100K for most of 2025 to a new floor of 500K to 700K.  Nansen noted three major factors that primarily drove this network growth. Firstly, Grayscale launched GAVA, an AVAX  staking ETF on Nasdaq, creating a link for institutional investors. Secondly, the SEC and CFTC classified AVAX as a digital commodity, thus bringing regulatory clarity. Finally, Broadridge brought proxy voting on-chain, allowing on-chain building. When active addresses and transactions rise in tandem, it suggests strengthening fundamentals through real usage rather than speculation.  In fact, the network has seen a surge in real users, as evidenced by the Sybil and Non-Sybil metrics. This metric showed that non-Sybil users have climbed from 5k to 49k over the past four months.  Therefore, network growth is driven by actual, unique users, while bot activity declines significantly. Traditionally, increased network activity has supported price growth.  Market demand is gradually recovering Interestingly, as network activity rises, AVAX has seen significant demand across the market, especially from large entities. On the spot side, for example,  buyers have shown relative strength in recent weeks. Over the past three days, the altcoin recorded $49 million in outflows compared to $45.9 million in inflows. As a result, the Spot Netflow has remained negative, dropping by 180% to -$3.06 million, a clear sign of aggressive spot accumulation. Looking at the Spot Average Order Size data, it seems this demand is mostly arising from whales. As such, large whale orders have occurred around $9.3, with whales establishing a demand wall around $8.9 and $9.3. AVAX remains stuck in a bearish structure Surprisingly, while Avalanche's on-chain activity has surged and demand has started to recover, AVAX remains stuck in a bearish structure. Looking at the altcoin's Supertrend, it has been in a downtrend for the past two weeks since it breached $10. Likewise, the altcoin remains below its short- and long-term moving averages, further validating the trend's strength. This shows that network growth has barely strengthened the altcoin price action. Thus, the increased transactions could be on the sell side. Additionally, the current market demand has proved insufficient to lift AVAX out of this trend. For a trend reversal, demand needs to hold and drive AVAX above $10, where the trend collapsed. In doing so, the altcoin will have flipped the 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs, further strengthening the uptrend. However, if the structural weakness continues, AVAX will trade sideways within the $8.4-$9.7 range. Final Summary Avalanche's on-chain activity surges, with daily transactions reaching a yearly high of 3.5 million.  AVAX still remains stuck within a bearish trend, amid structural weakness.