## Market Snapshot
In the “Netanyahu out by June 30” market, YES pricing currently stands at 4.5%, down from 6% a week ago. Meanwhile, the “Netanyahu out by May 31” market shows a 2.4% YES probability, a slight increase from 2% in the last 24 hours.
## Key Takeaways
– The Attorney-General’s agreement to meet suggests a shift in the legal proceedings against Netanyahu. – This development appears consistent with increasing likelihoods of Netanyahu’s resignation or removal. – Market pricing indicates a reduced probability of Netanyahu remaining Prime Minister post-next election.
## Article Body
Israeli Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara has agreed to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s defense team to discuss a possible plea bargain. The meeting follows an invitation from President Isaac Herzog, intended to facilitate preliminary discussions in Netanyahu’s criminal trial over cases known as 1000, 2000, and 4000. These cases involve allegations of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. Netanyahu’s trial has been ongoing since January 2020, marking the first time a sitting Israeli Prime Minister has stood trial. The Attorney-General’s decision to engage in discussions represents a significant shift from her previous stance, where she rejected plea-deal mediation, arguing it would delay the trial.
## Market Interpretation
The Attorney-General’s decision to consider a plea bargain appears supportive of a YES outcome in the “Netanyahu out” markets, suggesting a potential increase in the likelihood of Netanyahu’s resignation or removal. This development is classified as having a moderate impact, indicating a shift in the political and legal landscape surrounding Netanyahu’s future. Market pricing reflects this as a potential turning point in the ongoing legal proceedings.
## What to Watch
Observers will be keenly watching the outcome of the Attorney-General’s discussions with Netanyahu’s defense team. Any announcements regarding a plea deal or changes in Netanyahu’s political standing could significantly impact market probabilities. Additionally, responses from key political figures, such as President Herzog and opposition leaders Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz, may further influence market perceptions.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 4.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 2.2% | — | — | View market → |
