Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the Polymarket contract on whether the model would ship by May 31, which now sits at 100% YES, up from 38% a week ago.
The confirmed release moved several related markets simultaneously. The May 31 market is fully priced at 100% YES, as are the June 30 and April 30 contracts. The largest single move was a 27-point drop in the April 30 market at 2:15 AM, falling from 96% to 69%.
Combined daily trading volume across these markets hit $87,351 in face value and $85,709 in actual USDC. The term structure now shows no spread, with both April 30 and May 31 at 100% for the next 45 days. Order book depth is notable: only $5,252 would be needed to move the May 31 market odds by 5 points.
The release lands while the Pentagon is pressuring Anthropic over military applications and China’s open-source AI strategy competes with US proprietary models. A YES share at 100¢ is now a certainty, but traders are already looking at how this positions Anthropic ahead of Claude 5.
Watch for Pentagon and White House statements on Anthropic’s role in AI infrastructure. Shifts in government policy or public comments from Anthropic leadership could move related AI contracts on Polymarket.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
