Adobe is partnering with Microsoft, Anthropic, OpenAI, and NVIDIA, per the Wall Street Journal. The “largest company by June 30” market on Polymarket prices NVIDIA at 88.5% YES.
The odds for NVIDIA’s market cap dominance by June 30 sit at 88.5% YES, up from 84% yesterday. The market resolves in 73 days, and order book depth shows $9,363 needed to shift the price by 5 points.
The second-largest by April 30 market sits at just 0.5% YES. The gap between the two markets shows traders expect NVIDIA to hold the top spot by June but see almost no chance it drops to second by April.
The June market’s liquidity of $6,703/day means single large transactions can move the price meaningfully. The April second-largest market trades only $11 in actual USDC daily, making it essentially illiquid.
Buying YES at 88.5¢ pays $1 if NVIDIA is the largest company by June 30, a 1.16x return. The April market offers no practical trading opportunity at current volume.
Watch NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings and any announcements from Microsoft or OpenAI about joint AI projects. These could move odds on the June market.
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Largest Company End Of June 712| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 88.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1% | — | — | Trade → |
