A Score to Settle
Dick Lo3 min read·Just now--
12-May-2026
- Oil prices climbed in response to President Trump’s blunt assessment that the ongoing ceasefire with Iran is on “life support”, while dismissing Tehran’s peace proposal as a “piece of garbage”. With diplomacy stalling, the odds of a military re-escalation following this week’s Beijing summit are reaching a tipping point. Frustrated by a perceived lack of concessions from Tehran, the President reportedly now has more aggressive military options under active consideration.
- With the Senate Banking Committee’s markup of the Clarity Act scheduled for Thursday, the final text is expected to be released tonight. Market participants remain on high alert for any last-minute amendments. The looming vote has sparked a degree of panic within the banking lobby, with the ABA CEO Rob Nichols calling for “immediate engagement” in an email distributed on Sunday, urging members to lobby Senators on the supposed threats to bank deposits.
- White House Digital Asset Advisor Patrick Witt highlighted the irony of the ABA’s sudden urgency, revealing that the same banking leaders now sounding the alarm failed to show the same urgency at previous compromise discussions held at the White House. In fact, they failed to even to show up, choosing instead to boycott the very meetings designed to address their stated concerns
- Banking groups are expected to plead their case to the Senate, leveraging their influence over the midterm elections. They face a formidable opponent in Stand with Crypto, an advocacy group representing nearly 3 million members with reach into a broader pool of 8 million crypto owners. The group has declared it will “score” the Senate Banking Committee’s markup vote. Senators who vote “Yes” will secure an endorsement while those for vote against the bill will invite “A Score to Settle” at the upcoming elections. These scores carry genuine weight, with the crypto constituency widely credited for playing a major role in Trump’s 2024 election victory
- U.S. CPI data for April will be released tonight, with consensus eyeing another hot reading fueled by stubbornly high energy prices. Core inflation is projected to tick up to 0.4% MoM on an unrounded basis, bringing the annual rate to 2.7%.
Trading Roadmap
The crypto market continues to trade with a strong bid ahead of Thursday’s anticipated Senate Banking Committee markup of the Clarity Act. While uncertainty regarding the final legislative text persists, risk appetite remains remarkably resilient despite the deteriorating situation in the Middle East. With the 30-day “non-action” window closed, the administration appears increasingly likely to resume military operations as soon as this weekend, after the conclusion of the Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing.
We anticipate continued positive momentum heading into the Senate markup whilst geopolitical risk appears to be underpriced. Hence, on strength towards $83.5k resistance in anticipation of the Senate markup, we continue to look to partially monetise May tactical structures to lock in gains. Should the bill’s passage through the Senate Banking Committee drive further upside towards $89.8k, we will look to more aggressively take profit on May positions while layering into near-term tail protection against potential geopolitical re-escalation.
Disclaimer
All information, levels, prices and documents provided herein are being provided for general informational purposes only and should not be considered as a solicitation, offer or recommendation by TDX Strategies Ltd or any of its affiliates. Please read and fully understand our “Electronic Communication Disclaimer” which can be found at https://www.tdx-strategies.com/electronic-communication.
