A quantum computer may need just 10,000 qubits to empty your crypto wallets, researchers say

The research shows quantum computers may break bitcoin and ether wallet encryption with far fewer qubits than previously thought, accelerating the push toward post-quantum security.

What to know:

• A research paper from Caltech and quantum startup Oratomic found that the cryptography protecting bitcoin and ether wallets could be broken with as few as 10,000 physical qubits, far below earlier estimates of hundreds of thousands.
• Using Google's quantum circuits as a baseline, the authors say a neutral-atom quantum computer with about 26,000 qubits could crack ECC-256, the standard securing major blockchains, in roughly 10 days, while RSA-2048 would require about 102,000 qubits and three months.
• The findings, which come with conflicts of interest for the Oratomic-affiliated authors, underscore that the main question now is whether the crypto industry can migrate to quantum-resistant systems before the cost of quantum attacks falls further.

The quantum computing power required to break the encryption that secures blockchains continues to decline, at least in theory, raising the question of whether the industry can migrate to quantum-resistant platforms before they become vulnerable at an affordable cost.

A new paper by Caltech and quantum startup Oratomic suggests a system with around 26,000 qubits could break ECC-256, the encryption standard that secures the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains, in about 10 days. RSA-2048, used by financial institutions to secure their Web2 platforms, is more challenging, they found.

The researchers found the cryptography protecting bitcoin BTC$66,630.05 and ether (ETH) wallets could be broken using as few as 10,000 physical qubits, collapsing prior estimates that until this week still ran into the hundreds of thousands.

Qubits are the basic units of quantum computers, similar to bits in traditional machines. They are a measure not of speed, like gigahertz or teraflops, but rather reflect the scale of the system, closer to the number of cores or transistors in a chip.

The paper, posted Monday to the arXiv preprint server, landed alongside a Google Quantum AI whitepaper that pegged the threshold at fewer than 500,000 physical qubits.

The two are closely connected: the Oratomic team uses Google’s quantum circuits designed to break 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography, the system securing bitcoin and ether wallets, and shows a neutral-atom setup — laser-controlled atoms acting as qubits — could run them with about a 50th of the qubits Google estimated.

Together, the papers mark one of the sharpest compressions yet in the timeline of quantum threats. Estimated requirements for running Shor’s algorithm, the quantum method for breaking public-key encryption, have now fallen five orders of magnitude in two decades, from roughly 1 billion physical qubits in 2012 to about 10,000 today.

Those gains translate into clearer timelines for potential attacks.

Under the paper’s assumptions, a system with around 26,000 qubits could break ECC-256, the encryption standard that secures the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchain, in about 10 days, effectively allowing a quantum computer to derive private keys and take control of funds.

RSA-2048, used by financial institutions to secure their web2 platforms, would require closer to 102,000 qubits and roughly three months in a highly parallelized setup. Elliptic curve cryptography is more exposed because it achieves comparable security with smaller keys, making it easier work for a quantum machine.

That roughly 10-day window makes the rapid “on-spend” attack outlined in Google’s paper, where a quantum computer cracks a key in minutes and front-runs a live bitcoin transaction, unlikely under these assumptions.

It does little, however, to reduce the longer-term risk to funds already sitting in vulnerable addresses, including an estimated 6.9 million BTC tied to early wallets and reused addresses.

That framing comes with caveats. All nine authors are shareholders in Oratomic, with six employed by the company, positioning the paper as both a scientific result and a roadmap for its hardware approach.

The direction, however, is becoming harder to ignore. The question is no longer whether quantum systems can break crypto, but whether the industry can migrate before the cost of doing so collapses further.

More For You

As stablecoins evolve into core financial infrastructure, North America leads. This report maps the regulation, market shifts, and players driving adoption.

Why it matters:

Stablecoins are entering their third phase of evolution - the institutionalization era - becoming increasingly embedded into core financial infrastructure. As institutions prioritize transparency and compliance, regulated issuers like USDC, RLUSD, and PYUSD are steadily gaining share with RLUSD surpassing $1B in market cap within its first year. North America, leading in regulatory frameworks and institutional distribution, is at the center of it all.

More For You

Bitcoin’s brief rally faded amid war-driven oil price surge, rising volatility and declining futures interest, signaling growing caution across crypto markets.

What to know:

• BTC spiked to $68,300 before falling to $66,500, while implied volatility (as measured by the BVIV index) climbed to 58%, pointing to more turbulence ahead.
• Futures open interest has dropped over 18% this year, with broad declines across major tokens indicating capital outflows.
• Options markets show strong demand for downside...

Prediction markets backlash builds possible stormcloud for 2027

1 minute ago

Forex startup OpenFX raises $94 million to expand stablecoin-powered cross-border payments

20 minutes ago

Quantum risk resurfaces at the worst time for bitcoin, but 1 token is loving it

46 minutes ago

Bearish sentiment builds in crypto as volatility and hedging rise

1 hour ago

David Bailey’s Nakamoto sells roughly 5% of its bitcoin holdings, offloading 284 BTC

2 hours ago

Hashdex’s diversified crypto ETF adds options for hedging, income generation

2 hours ago

Breaking Bitcoin with quantum may be easier than thought, with Taproot partly to blame, Google says

7 hours ago

Bitcoin demand falters as 'real' interest rates surge

5 hours ago

Bitcoin holds $67,500 as Trump signals he may end Iran war with Hormuz still shut

6 hours ago

Maryland man charged in $50 million Uranium Finance hack after U.S. seized $31 million in crypto

6 hours ago

Democrats urge warnings to federal officials against insider bets on prediction markets

14 hours ago

In this article

BTCBTC$66,630.05◢1.48%