80% of institutional investors are eyeing Bitcoin and digital assets, according to a Nomura survey. Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 2026 sits at 38% YES on Polymarket.
Market reaction
The odds for Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by year’s end are at 11% YES, while the $100,000 scenario moved from 34% a week ago to its current level. That 4-point jump coincides with the Nomura survey’s release and suggests traders are pricing in institutional capital flows. At a buying price of 38¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin reaches $100,000, offering a 2.63x return.
Why it matters
The Nomura survey points to a potential wave of institutional capital entering crypto. Geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation have strengthened Bitcoin’s appeal as a reserve asset. The possibility of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could further tighten global supply. If even a fraction of the 80% of surveyed institutions follow through on allocations, the effect on a relatively illiquid asset would be significant.
Short-term markets and volume
The Bitcoin price above $62,000 on April 18 is at 100% YES, and April 17 holds the same certainty, indicating strong short-term price support. Trading volume on the Bitcoin price markets for April 18 is at $356,583 in USDC. The $100,000 market is thin enough that $9,683 can move the price 5 percentage points, making it sensitive to large trades.
What to watch
Risks remain: a regulatory clampdown or macroeconomic shock could reverse the trend. Key catalysts include announcements from institutional players like BlackRock or Fidelity, geopolitical developments affecting oil prices, and upcoming crypto regulatory decisions.
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What Price Will Bitcoin Hit Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| $150,000 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
