Iran’s army commander, Major General Abdolrahim Hatami, announced that 7 million Iranians have volunteered to fight against a potential ground invasion. Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 have risen to 65.5% YES, up from 55% yesterday.
The April 30 market shows the most activity, indicating traders expect increased conflict. The December 31 market also rose to 74.5% YES, up from 64%, suggesting belief in potential US troop entry later in the year. The March 31 market remains nearly inactive at 0.1% YES.
April 30 market volume is at $2.3M in daily USDC, with $176,481 needed to shift the price by 5 points, showing strong institutional interest. A notable 6-point drop occurred at 1:12 AM, likely due to strategic announcements.
Iran’s aggressive rhetoric has limited impact due to low-tier sources. Traders are hedging against invasion, with YES shares for April 30 at 66¢, offering a potential 1.5x payout. Confirmed US troop movements or Pentagon statements could drive YES odds higher.
Watch for Pentagon announcements or Congressional actions on war powers. Signals from Secretary Hegseth or President Trump about ground operations could spike the odds.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 65.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 74.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 74.5% | — | — | Trade → |
