A $760M Brent crude short trade preceded the announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would stay open, and the market for crude oil hitting $90 by June now sits at 25% YES.
Market reaction
Traders moved quickly, anticipating lower oil prices with the reduced risk of supply disruptions. This is the third well-timed trade in less than a month, each coinciding with geopolitical developments that moved oil prices. Crude Oil Predictions for June.
Why it matters
The substantial short positions were placed ahead of de-escalation news, which raises questions about insider knowledge. The Crude Oil Price Predictions by End of June market shows traders pricing a 25% probability of hitting $90. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and OPEC+ production cuts complicate the picture, but the immediate focus is the Strait’s status.
The market has seen zero trading volume in the last 24 hours, pointing to either a lack of conviction or hesitation among participants. The CFTC’s investigation into pre-announcement trades may be keeping traders on the sidelines, wary of regulatory repercussions. The low USDC volume suggests the market is positioned for a bearish move but not yet seeing real activity.
What to watch
At 25¢, a YES share in crude oil hitting $90 by June pays 4x if it resolves, but that outcome requires a significant geopolitical shock or supply disruption within 75 days.
Watch for statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister and Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister. Any new OPEC+ production quota decisions or shifts in U.S.-Iran relations could move these markets quickly.
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